Climate Applications

World Meteorological Organization Water Sector

Water is predicted to be the primary medium through which early climate change impacts will be experienced by various sectors and affect sustainable development, jeopardize economic development and poverty reduction efforts. Every aspect of the hydrological cycle, and consequently all water in the world, is intimately connected with climate. As the fundamental drivers of the hydrological cycle are affected by increasing climate variability and climate change, they will have large impacts on water resources availability and demand.
These changes in water availability and demand will exacerbate development issues in almost all sectors such as health, food production, sustainable energy, and biodiversity. Increased water related risks associated with the changes in frequency of extreme events, such as flash floods, storm surge, and land slides, will put further stresses on these sectors. Climate change also impacts water quality, aquatic ecosystems (not only temperatures, but also altered flow regimes, water levels, and ice cover) and groundwater.
Adaptation to increasing climate variability and climate change in the water sector needs to be guided by principles of: adaptations within broader development context; improving governance; building resilience; and addressing the economic and financial aspects; improving and sharing knowledge and information.
Climate data and information underpin the planning and management of surface freshwater supplies and mitigation of damage from high and low water flows. Long records of catchment rainfall and river flows provide the basis of planning for sustainable freshwater harvesting but it is the hydrological extremes of flood and drought that pose significant problems for water resource managers. Good design of storage reservoirs and water supply systems for cities is based on the water availability and how the supply fluctuates in space and time.
Statistics based on long records of catchment rainfall are essential for calculating quantities such as frequency of heavy rainfall the Probable Maximum Precipitation for given periods and flood events. If the paradigm of climate stationarity is indeed defunct, then a new family of theories and tools must be developed to assist water sector decision-making. The planning and design of new hydraulic infrastructure requires new hydrologic tools for dealing with a non-stationary climate, and mechanisms for incorporating very uncertain and qualitative climate change scenario information.
Climate and data information from weekly to seasonal to annual timescales at national, regional and local levels are essential and provide the foundation upon which operational water management strategies are developed. It is vital that major reservoirs handle peak flood flows without danger of exceeding the spillway capacity. Early warning of extreme events such as floods and droughts is crucial for developing and implementing various flood preparedness and response strategies.


Agriculture Sector

In vast parts of the world, agriculture is solely rainfed. Failure of rains and occurrence of natural disasters such as floods and droughts could lead to crop failures, food insecurity, famine, loss of property and life, mass migration, and negative national economic growth. Agricultural communities around the world have always looked for ways and means to cope with climate variability including the use of various traditional indicators to predict the seasonal climate behaviour.
Climate change, and increasing climate variability, as well as other global environmental issues such as land degradation, loss of biological diversity and stratospheric ozone depletion, threaten our ability to meet the basic human needs in adequate food, water and energy, safe shelter and a healthy environment. Decreasing the vulnerability of agriculture to natural climate variability through a more informed choice of policies, practices and technologies will, in many cases, reduce its long-term vulnerability to climate change.
Increasing climate knowledge and improved prediction capabilities facilitate the development of relevant climate information and prediction products for applications in agriculture to reduce the negative impacts due to climate variations and to enhance planning activities based on the developing capacity of climate science.
Even with the impressive technological advances of recent decades, climate remains a critical factor in the success or failure of any form of food or fibre production. Farmers can exploit weather and climate services to minimize the impact of these hazards, either by planning to avoid the risk in the first place or by taking precautionary measures when there is warning that a hazard threatens.
The climate forecast community is now capable of providing an end-to-end multi-scale (in space and time) integrated prediction system that provides skilful, useful predictions of variables with socio-economic interest. For agriculture, climate forecasts must be interpreted in terms of production outcomes at the scale of decisions if farmers and other agricultural decision-makers are to benefit. Indeed, there have been several successful attempts to link seasonal climate forecasts from general circulation models with crop models.
The forestry sector uses historical climate data to develop strategic plans from planting to harvesting. These decisions cover practices such as zoning land for commercial forestry based on climate suitability, site preparation, regeneration, thinning and fertilizing. Information on potential climate change is equally important. If the climate changes as the trees grow the yield could be significantly different to what was expected.
Monitoring of monthly and seasonal variations in sea surface temperatures is enhancing the tactical planning of operations for ocean fishing fleets (e.g. by minimizing time and costs in locating and travelling to fish) and could improve the overall management of the worlds fisheries. Also, the detailed knowledge of such climate events such as El Niño or La Niña can lead deep-ocean Pacific fishing fleets to fishing feeding areas.



Health Sector

The World Health Organization (WHO) estimates that approximately 300 to 500 million cases of malaria occur worldwide with about 2 million people being killed each year, 80% of which occur in Sub-Saharan Africa. Malaria is endemic in a broad band around the equator in parts of the Americas, Asia, Africa, Oceania and certain Caribbean Islands.
Malaria is the most serious and common vector-borne disease in the world, but most importantly, it is preventable and curable. Malaria mitigation strategies require a combination of preventive and curative treatment methods and close collaboration between the health and climate sectors. The timely provision of climate information with several months lead-time can be combined with a well-developed national and regional response strategy that allocates resources for public outreach and distribution of medication and insecticides well in advance.
Geographical distribution of malaria is complex and topographically induced regional pockets with different climates may result in malarial and malaria-free areas close to each other. Given the limited resources many tropical and sub-tropical countries have in detecting and controlling malaria outbreaks, seasonal climate predictions with high spatial resolution are necessary to prepare for the most effective response in well-targeted areas. High altitude regions have been protected from malaria endemicity because parasite multiplication and mosquito development are inefficient in temperatures below 18°C. However, there appears to be an emergence of malaria in the African highlands which may be attributable to a true change in disease pattern caused by increasing temperatures associated with climate change. The recently released Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) noted that climate change was expected to have some mixed effects on health, such as the decrease or increase of the range and transmission potential of malaria in Africa.
As global temperatures continue to rise and precipitation patterns appear to alter, it is important to have a system that allows public health practitioners to forecast where and when malaria epidemics may occur. Temperature, precipitation and humidity are considered risk factors for malaria transmission. Increasing temperature accelerates the rate of mosquito larval development, the frequency of blood feeding by adult females on humans, and reduces the time it takes the malaria parasites to mature in female mosquitoes. Increased rainfall creates additional breeding sites for mosquitoes, thus increasing their numbers. Rainfall is recognized as one of the major factors influencing variability in malaria transmission in warm semi-arid and desert-fringe areas of the Sahel, the Greater Horn and Southern Africa.
Explosive epidemics may occur in these regions after excessive rains, usually with a lag-time of several weeks during which time the mosquito populations and malaria infections in humans increase rapidly. Many countries in Africa do incorporate malaria early detection into their malaria control efforts. Early detection means carefully monitoring rates of malaria incidence, in order to detect an impending outbreak.
Early detection can provide enough lead time (days to over a week) to deliver malaria control drugs to the affected region, and thereby minimize the morbidity and mortality associated with the outbreaks. In addition, the climate conditions favouring mosquito breeding, parasite development, and hence transmission need careful and constant monitoring.
An integrated framework for an epidemic Malaria Early Warning and Response System (MEWS) was developed by the RBM Partners jointly with the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) and national ministries of health in Africa. MEWS is based on the principles and recommendations of the Famine Early Warning System (FEWS), which was operationalized in 1986 following the widespread famine in Africa in the early 1980s. MEWS includes seasonal forecasts and climate monitoring as well as vulnerability assessments, case surveillance and response planning. The first operational MEWS has now been put in place in the Southern African countries with a focus on Botswana and the initial results are promising. Climate outlooks with three to four months lead-time are likely required in responding to an imminent malaria epidemic and stockpiling at the national level the supplies that may be needed effectively to respond.
A new malaria early warning technique recently proposed by researchers at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), the IRI and the Ministry of Health in Botswana incorporates climate forecasts from multi-model ensembles to predict when malaria risk will be at its peak, by examining climatic variables which infl uence the proliferation of mosquitoes. The team successfully deployed the technique in Botswana and was able to give policy-makers and health programme officers up to four months of advance notice.
An ensemble forecast model based on the DEMETER project, that predicts a probability distribution of climate scenarios and hence, peak times for malaria transmissions. The Awards prize money was recently invested in a project lead by the Tanzania Meteorological Agency, studying the impacts of climate variability on malaria in Tanzania. The main objective of the project was to further develop and apply the DEMETER methodology of integrating seasonal forecasts and malaria statistics into an end-to-end early warning system for malaria outbreaks. A new database of clinical cases was collected and made available for the wider scientifi c community, the seasonal cycle of malaria outbreaks determined and the high risk areas identified.
Since 2004, the WHOs office in the southern African region, the SADC Drought Monitoring Centre in Gaborone, Botswana, and the IRI have been working with the WMO, its Members, the National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs), and the Ministries of Health in the southern African countries to conduct a preseason Malaria Outlook Forum (MALOF). The MALOF meeting has so far been held three times in the southern African region and, for the first time in March 2007, in the East Africa- Greater Horn of Africa region. The MALOF is and has been the cornerstone for implementing an early warning system for malaria in the member states of these African regions. The Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) located in Nairobi, Kenya, which serves the East Africa-Greater Horn of Africa region, has taken responsibility in developing a regionally specifi ed early warning system for malaria comparable to the one established in southern Africa.
The Climate Information and Prediction Services (CLIPS) project, a component of the World Climate Applications and Services Programme (WCASP) under the World Climate Programme (WCP) of WMO, working together with the World Bank, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) of the USA, the IRI, the European Commission, and the NMHSs, has been a major driving force for developing seasonal climate prediction in Africa with the establishment of the Regional Climate Outlook Forums (RCOFs), the fi rst of which took place in 1996 in Zimbabwe. An integral part of the RCOF sessions held since 2004 in the Southern Africa region and since 2007 in the East Africa-Greater Horn of Africa region is the MALOF, with the primary mission to establish an operational early warning system for malaria. The RCOF-MALOF joint sessions enable the experts from the NMHSs to interact with the representatives from the health sectors, and together they jointly develop malaria detection and response products best suitable for various sectors, spatial and temporal scales.
Other Resources
DaSilva, J., B. Garanganga, V. Teveredzi, S. M. Marx, S. J. Mason, and S. J. Connor (2004) Improving epidemic malaria planning, preparedness and response in Southern Africa. Malaria Journal 3: 37.
Githeko, A. K., and W. Ndegwa (2001) Predicting malaria epidemics in the Kenyan highlands using climate data: a tool for decision makers. Global Change & Human Health 2(1): 54-63
Grover-Kopec, E., M. Kawano, R. W. Klaver, B. Blumenthal, P. Cescato, and S. J. Connor (2005) An online operational rainfall monitoring resource for epidemic malaria early warning systems in Africa. Malaria Journal 4:6
McMichael, A. J., D. H. Campbell, C. F. Corvalan, K. L. Ebi., A. Githeko, J. D. Scheraga, and A. Woodward (2003) Climate Change and Human Health: Risks and Responses. WHO/WMO/UNEP. 322 pp.
Thomson, M. C., S. J. Mason, T. Phindela, and S. J. Connor (2005) Use of rainfall and sea surface temperature monitoring for malaria early warning in Botswana. American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene 73:214-221
WHO (2001) Malaria Early Warning Systems: concepts, indicators and partners. A framework for field research in Africa. WHO/Roll Black Malaria/Technical Support Network for Prevention and Control of Malaria. 80 pp. http://www.who.int/malaria/cmc_upload/0/000/014 /807/mews2.pdf
WHO (2005) Using climate to predict infectious disease epidemics. WHO/Roll Back Malaria. 54 pp. http://www.who.int/globalchange/publ.../en/index.html
WMO (2007) Statement from the 19th Climate Outlook Forum for the Greater Horn of Africa: 5-7 March 2007, Nairobi, Kenya.
http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/wcp/wc...forecasts.html

Energy Sector

Energy is at the heart of economic and social development and the correct use of historical climate data can help to locate and design better energy infrastructure.
Most humans are comfortable in a relatively narrow temperature range from about 15°C to 25°C. This comfort zone is reflected in energy usage patterns of modern cities. When air temperatures moves outside this range energy demand increases; for heating as the temperature falls below about 18°C and for cooling as the temperature rises above about 22°C. The degree-day is a useful statistic that has been developed to assist the monitoring of energy usage and prediction. The degree-days can be either the accumulated departures of daytime temperature below a specified threshold (the heating degree-days) or above a specified threshold (the cooling degree-days). Thus, if a winter is milder than normal there are fewer heating degree-days and less demand for energy for home and office heating. By contrast, a severe winter will create a greater demand for energy. Energy companies use the link between climate variability and energy demand for supply planning to guard against shortages during the most critical times. For this reason, energy companies were one of first users of seasonal climate forecasts and continue to use these products in their seasonal planning.
The ability to generate electricity centrally and to distribute it where it is needed has been a significant factor in the development of cities. Urban air quality also benefited as electricity replaced wood, coal and coal gas for domestic heating and cooking purposes, and the smoke and soot that were characteristic pollutants in many cities were no longer prevalent. Communities have, however, developed a dependence on ready access to electricity. Complex distribution networks have evolved to meet the various needs, and grids of high voltage lines cross the countryside linking communities. Often the power lines that service individual buildings are hung from street poles and other support structures. Climate statistics are one of the key factors for planning the energy generation anddistribution systems, and for ensuring that outages through extreme weather events are minimized.
Renewable energy resources have been exploited for centuries, using windmills and water wheels. Direct solar conversion, harnessing of hydro, wind and wave energies can in certain circumstances, replace significant quantities of non-renewable energy sources. A benefit of hydroelectric power is that efficient generation plants can be built on all scales. A major challenge for managers of hydroelectric facilities is to match energy generation to seasonal and long-term water supplies, and often to competing water demands for urban and irrigation needs. During periods of drought the demand for electricity has to be balanced against the need to conserve scarce water supplies. Long climatic records on the year-to-year variability and the duration and intensity of past drought events are essential to the design process and are crucially important in water management at times of meteorological extremes.
Wind power has traditionally been harnessed for lifting, grinding and other mechanical applications. Small wind systems were widely used early in the 20th century for domestic electricity generation and pumping water, but were displaced due to the convenience of petrol or diesel generators. Large wind generators now offer economic power supplies in climatologically favourable locations of northwestern Europe and the United States. Long records describing the diurnal and seasonal patterns of local winds are essential for planning the economics of a wind generation project.
The most successful use of solar energy has been in direct heating of water for domestic and space heating purposes. Solar hot water heaters are increasingly common in tropical and middle latitude regions of both developed and developing countries. Attempts have been made to generate significant quantities of electricity from photovoltaic solar panels. Large-scale solar systems have demonstrated the feasibility of photovoltaic conversion and their location is determined be the use of solar climate data.


Tourism Sector

For many countries, tourism has become a fundamental contribution to the local economy and one of the principal options for them to combat poverty. The reduction of extreme poverty and hunger as well as the attainment of sustainable development are prime objectives of the UN Millennium Development Goals.
However, the increasingly important travel and tourism sector is highly vulnerable to the effects of climate variability and change. Favourable climatic conditions at destinations are key attractions for tourists, especially in beach destinations. Mountain tourism or winter sports are also highly dependent on specific climate and weather conditions. Climate change will not only have direct impacts on tourism, but will also affect tourism through changes to the natural environment through coastal erosion, by damaging coral reefs, wildlife and other sensitive, biodiversity-rich ecosystems; or by increasing the risk of wildfires. Climate change can also affect the availability of water supplies, especially during the peak tourist season, and may increase the risks of outbreaks and epidemics of infectious diseases.
WMO and the National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NHMSs) of its Members can assist the tourism sector in its efforts to build resilience and to further increase adaptability, in order for it to remain viable and safe on a long perspective for both the tourists and their hosts. By enhancing climate observations and improving the accuracy and lead times in the provision of appropriate weather and climate information, WMO can help to reduce the adverse consequences of extremes and changes in weather and climate.
Climate variability and change not only pose risks to some segments of the tourism sector but may also represent opportunities. For example, warmer and more favourable temperatures in the mid-latitudes might reduce the tourists motivation to travel to the tropics and to choose nearby destinations instead. However, while WMO is (also) aware of the possibility of some potentially beneficial changes to tourism owing to climate change, it is likely that the negative impacts will by far outweigh them, stated Michel Jarraud, adding: the provision of timely, reliable research-based information for planning should help to reduce the risks to the sector. WMO therefore urges governments and the private sector to increasingly use the climate information, advice and services of the NMHSs, and to take additional steps towards incorporating climate considerations in tourism policies, development and management plans.
WMOs commitment to explore the climate change-tourism relationship took on more momentum in November 2005, when the Commission for Climatology established its new Expert Team on Climate and Tourism. This team was tasked to develop methodologies to establish statistical relationships between meteorological conditions and tourist frequency and destination; and to assess the impact of climate variability and climate change on the tourism industry, to include changes in precipitation patterns and extremes; changes in ocean temperature as the latter contributes to coral bleaching and to high-energy tropical cyclones, amongst others; the impacts on tourism of sea-level rise, shifts in biodiversity, storm surge waves, erosion of shores and beaches, shifts in seasonality; the role of weather, climate and water in infrastructure damage and disruption to key services in terms of availability of water, energy and food. The Expert Team contributed strongly to the new publication Climate Change and Tourism: Responding to Global Challenges (UNWTO, 2007), developed jointly by the UN World Tourism Organization (UNWTO), UNEP and WMO. This study outlines not only the impacts of climate change on tourism, but also recognises that tourism activities are a contributor to greenhouse gas emissions, and recommends actions to mitigate these effects.
At the Second International Conference on Climate Change and Tourism, organized by the UNWTO, UNEP and WMO (Davos, Switzerland, October 2007) the 450 participants agreed that there was a need to urgently adopt a range of policies which encourages truly sustainable tourism which reflects a quadruple bottom line of environmental, social, economic and climate responsiveness. The Davos Declaration tied together tourism, climate and the environment, and development, and called for concerted government, industry and consumer action around the commonly agreed Kyoto (and post-Kyoto) framework led by the United Nations.
The Davos Declaration was presented to parliamentarians and decision makers at the Ministers Summit on Tourism and Climate Change held in London, UK, 13 November 2007, which was hosted at the World Travel Market (WTM). The meeting participants strongly endorsed the declaration and urged all tourism stakeholders to follow its recommendations.


Urban Building, Planning and Design sector

Modern cities have evolved around networks of buildings and public infrastructures that provide comfort and safety to the inhabitants and maintain business, even during extreme weather and climate events. However, the reliance on artificial heating and cooling that has evolved is being challenged by the need for energy conservation.
Not too long ago, building practice was almost entirely a cultural process based on tradition, with styles developed over time to suit the local climate and techniques making use of available, often local, building materials. Since World War II many countries have established building research agencies to assist in the planning and design of buildings, especially to set standards of construction for safety. Weather-related events are a major cause of building failures so there is good reason for using climate services to define building standards and performance, and to integrate climate statistics into national building codes. In most countries with a variety of climatic regimes, differences are significant enough to require regional design considerations, and not just for heating, cooling and ventilation purposes. In lower latitude coastal regions where tropical cyclones are a particular hazard the design wind loading is much higher than inland or in more temperate coastal zones. At higher latitudes the potential snow loads on roofs vary according to geographical location, climate, site exposure, shape and type of roof, etc. In many mountainous regions (e.g. Switzerland and Austria) snow loads on roofs can last all winter, creating a dangerous burden on buildings. The buildings must therefore be designed to withstand the load and permit access to the roofs so that dangerous accumulations can be cleared.
Building construction in the 20th century was characterized by widespread adoption of concrete, metals and glass as basic materials. Reinforced concrete provided strength and glass permitted light to enter without the nuisance of wind, dust and insects, etc. Such construction methods are common from the tropics to the near-polar regions. The thermal limitations of these materials have largely been countered by the use of artificial air conditioning cooling in the hotter lands and heating where it is colder. On the downside, cement manufacture and air conditioning are both major contributors to the build-up of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere, and hence to global warming. The building industry and its design and construction methods offer significant potential for reduction in the future contribution to greenhouse gas emissions. Research is being carried out in many parts of the world to identify house designs that are more thermally efficient. In many instances, architects are reverting to indigenous designs that had been discarded in favour of imported mass-production building methods. They are also adopting principles from physics to promote comfort and aesthetics while minimizing the need for artificial lighting and heating.


Transportation sector

Technological advances have ensured that maritime, aviation and land transport systems are generally robust in the face of extreme weather events. However, when infrastructure failures occur they have severe impact on the dependent communities and their industries.
The potentially devastating impacts of winds, waves, sea ice and storm surge on all aspects of marine operations dominate the design and operation of ships, port facilities and coastal hydraulics. The design considerations range from ensuring the sea-worthiness of vessels to withstand defined sea states, through offshore platforms that can stand, for example, the one-in-one hundred year storm for a given location, to building sea defences and harbour installations to cope with similarly rare storm surges. All these activities require the fullest possible use of climatic data collected over many decades.
Road and railway structures are built to make traffic more efficient and to minimize disruptions from rain and flooding. The 20th century saw enormous upgrading and expansion of land transport systems globally to accommodate increased trade and commerce, especially in the collection of raw materials and the distribution of finished goods. Many meteorological hazards have been engineered out of land transport systems, as high bridges have been built to avoid potential flooding from rain swollen rivers and tunnelling has avoided disruption from snow accumulation and avalanches on high mountain passes. These analyses used historical climate data to make these decisions.
The economic viability of the massive investment hangs on continuity of operations, so disruption of the transport system due to weather incurs a large economic cost. Even in the most arid regions, the land route must be carefully surveyed and the climatology assessed to design against occasional flooding of crossings over generally dry riverbeds. In particular, flood rains associated with tropical cyclones or their remnant storm systems have been damaging when adequate engineering had not been carried out to prevent erosion of the road and supporting structures.
In the development of new airports, and even the expansion of existing ones, siting and design must take into consideration the meteorological factors that could disrupt operations and therefore add to the overall cost of operations. Fog, low clouds, snowfall, locally strong winds and poor visibility are a few of the important weather-related events. The new Hong Kong International Airport opened in July 1998 provides a case study for the design of airports. Meteorological analyses related to planning and design of the airport site began in the late 1970s. These included wind shear and turbulence investigations necessitated by the hilly terrain near the site. Measurements of the prevailing easterly winds helped in deciding the alignment of the runways. Other climate information, including cloud base and visibility, contributed towards determining the projected runway usability as part of the economic evaluation. One finding from the analysis of the data gathered is that, over the past few decades, there has been a trend towards reduced visibility. Operational efficiency of the airport could be reduced in future if the trend continues.


Humanitarian sector

Climate variability and change impacts on the location,frequency, intensity or severity of extreme events have increased requests for early warning for better preparation and response by the humanitarian sector. At the global level, an Inter Agency Standing Committee (IASC) has been set up to coordinate and improve delivery of humanitarian assistance to affected people worldwide. Climate information including seasonal forecasts is contributing to IASCs Early Warning - Early Action report used to foster enhanced preparations and early response to crises and emergencies around the world.
In different regions, climate information is increasingly provided to support emergency appeals and regional/national humanitarian responses to floods and droughts. National Red Cross and Red Crescent societies capacities are built to better identify communities at risk, structure appropriate climate risk communication leading to a participatory decision making for increased preparation and response including evacuation if necessary. Essential relief stocks are pre-positioned with training of national volunteers for early assessment and response actions.
Given the type of the expected climate risk ( e.g floods or drought) specific additional targeted training on contingency planning can be provided to national red cross societies. Better contingency plans, risk maps for countries, regional coordination of preparedness for response have been demonstrated with the application of seasonal forecasts in some regions ( e.g West and Central Africa in 2008 and 2009). Climate services applied to the humanitarian sector is considered among the best practices for disaster risk reduction and adaptation contributing to the implementation of the Hyogo Framework for Action and the UNFCCC.